Can you imagine taking on a job in which most of your customers either hate you or distrust you, your budget is totally screwed, and those who support your endeavor are in such bad shape that they may not survive? Welcome to the next President of the United States nightmare.
There are so many places to begin, but I will pick a few:
1) The economy. Oil prices will be back up as the Xmas price cut goes away(got to help the retailers lure the lemmings into the stores one last time), and the resurgence of the Chinese demand comes back on line. There will be the end of the availability to borrow from the Fed, and the housing crisis will be entering the FOURTH INNING.
2) The budget. $481 billion dollars? Ha!!! That does not include the war, rising Medicare costs, decrease tax revenues, and increased demands from states and retirees. Will we be able to get out of Iraq, or will we be going into Afghanistan/Iran? Oh yeah, in order to borrow more money, interest rates will be so high, that Tony Soprano would blush at the vig.
3) Inflation, also known as they want what we got. There are more Indian school kids than there are American citizens. DC should be called flan city as opposed to chocolate city. And 60,000 cars a month come on line in China every month means the demand for goods goes way up. Good for Cisco; bad for the rest of us.
4) Energy. This one is tough, because I see little old ladies freezing to death, and families dying in fires because they cannot afford heating oil or to pay their gas and electric bills. Gasoline will be back up, and no significant change in energy policy is forthcoming from the current Congress. While everyone will be talking a good game, we will still be lusting after Alaskan oil, clean coal, spent nuclear fuel storage, and unicorn based biofuels. Oh yeah, ethanol actually decreases fuel economy while increasing food costs. That's supply side economics for you.
I am surprised that any sane person would want to be POTUS. Then again, how many of the previous POTUSes did not have something a little off kilter? An actor, a redneck, and a C student who thinks he is a cowboy? Maybe it is us who are a little off kilter...
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Terrorism comes in all flavors.
In my current life, I deal in the medical industry. One of the ironic things in medicine is how practitioners disproportionately value thwarting one type of death versus another. Hundreds of thousands of dollars are spent trying to save one premie, yet Medicaid shortchanges funding for vaccines. Millions, if not billions are spent on the last days of elderly patients' lives, which many feel is futile, while healthy seniors can not get blood pressure monitors covered.
I say this because our government also values certain lives more than others. My heart goes out to the over 3000 victims of the 9/11 attacks. I lost people I knew from college in the attacks. Millions have been paid to compensate their survivors. And close to a trillion dollars have been spent "trying" to fight the supposed perps of the attacks.
Yet we devalue the over 4000 who have lost their lives fighting the war. Whether it was shipping the bodies back home like so many Ipods without honor or fanfare initially, or lying to their parents about the nature of their deaths, as in the case of Pat Tillman, our soldiers, who are put on a pedestal by false patriots, are given short shrift. In fact, soldiers for a time, were only given less than $100,000 in death benefits until a few Senators became outraged.
And even this is not the most outrageous sin to me. The fact that women are becoming sacrificial lambs to satisfy the bloodlust of soldiers who can't rape and kill enough Iraqis, and the fact that our military addresses the issue by telling the families of such victims that they "committed suicide" is abominable.
I have read stories of soldiers and female contractors being raped and told to be silent, and of raped soldiers being killed to cover up the attacks. But this story in Alternet:http://www.alternet.org/blogs/waroniraq/93071/, turned my stomach in a way no other story has. Was it that she was a woman, or a Black woman, that she was treated worse than a dog?
And yet, we have a President and Vice President who both have daughters, and a Secretary of State, who is a woman, who have been relatively silent on this issue. A friend of mine works as a social worker at a VA. She tells me that to a woman, all the female soldiers have a history of sexual abuse. The unlucky ones, it seems, are the ones who survived.
It seems that in order to hunt down certain terrorists, we only have to look at our neighbors, or in the mirror...
I say this because our government also values certain lives more than others. My heart goes out to the over 3000 victims of the 9/11 attacks. I lost people I knew from college in the attacks. Millions have been paid to compensate their survivors. And close to a trillion dollars have been spent "trying" to fight the supposed perps of the attacks.
Yet we devalue the over 4000 who have lost their lives fighting the war. Whether it was shipping the bodies back home like so many Ipods without honor or fanfare initially, or lying to their parents about the nature of their deaths, as in the case of Pat Tillman, our soldiers, who are put on a pedestal by false patriots, are given short shrift. In fact, soldiers for a time, were only given less than $100,000 in death benefits until a few Senators became outraged.
And even this is not the most outrageous sin to me. The fact that women are becoming sacrificial lambs to satisfy the bloodlust of soldiers who can't rape and kill enough Iraqis, and the fact that our military addresses the issue by telling the families of such victims that they "committed suicide" is abominable.
I have read stories of soldiers and female contractors being raped and told to be silent, and of raped soldiers being killed to cover up the attacks. But this story in Alternet:http://www.alternet.org/blogs/waroniraq/93071/, turned my stomach in a way no other story has. Was it that she was a woman, or a Black woman, that she was treated worse than a dog?
And yet, we have a President and Vice President who both have daughters, and a Secretary of State, who is a woman, who have been relatively silent on this issue. A friend of mine works as a social worker at a VA. She tells me that to a woman, all the female soldiers have a history of sexual abuse. The unlucky ones, it seems, are the ones who survived.
It seems that in order to hunt down certain terrorists, we only have to look at our neighbors, or in the mirror...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
I Call Bullshit!
Senator Obama in his trip to Europe and the Middle East, looked a little like the character in the movie "Hancock"; no matter what he did, there was always a little damage left behind. His biggest faux pas seems to be his non visit to the wounded troops at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. Should he have said damn the torpedoes and gone anyway? I do not know. Maube the troops do not need candidates visiting the base; maybe they would appreciate a visit from the Commander in Chief who sent them there.That would be a brave stroke by our President, and one that would make a lot of Americans feel that their valiant troops sacrifices had not been unappreciated.
Ah but this is America, where no one seems to want to call BS anymore when people go on tirades. I Googled "President Bush and Landstuhl Regional Medical Center", and you know what I got? A lot of links to Obama NOT going. I then Googled "Presidents" and "Senator McCain" with Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, and guess what? There was Obama.
As many of you know, I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach about this election, even more so than in 1980, when I went to Quaker meeting to pray for our country when Reagan was elected. But this hypocrasy over one candidate not going while there is not a lot of evidence that OUR PRESIDENT NOR THE OTHER CANDIDATE ever having gone just takes me over the edge. Please, please prove me wrong. Send me links, pictures, or statements that Bush or McCain has ever been to the Medical Center, even if to use the bathroom. Please tell me that the American people are not so numb from the price of gas, and whether Mylie Cyrus has nude pictures on the internet or not, that they are not questioning this silliness.
Oh well, when life gives you BS, plant flowers...
Ah but this is America, where no one seems to want to call BS anymore when people go on tirades. I Googled "President Bush and Landstuhl Regional Medical Center", and you know what I got? A lot of links to Obama NOT going. I then Googled "Presidents" and "Senator McCain" with Landstuhl Regional Medical Center, and guess what? There was Obama.
As many of you know, I have a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach about this election, even more so than in 1980, when I went to Quaker meeting to pray for our country when Reagan was elected. But this hypocrasy over one candidate not going while there is not a lot of evidence that OUR PRESIDENT NOR THE OTHER CANDIDATE ever having gone just takes me over the edge. Please, please prove me wrong. Send me links, pictures, or statements that Bush or McCain has ever been to the Medical Center, even if to use the bathroom. Please tell me that the American people are not so numb from the price of gas, and whether Mylie Cyrus has nude pictures on the internet or not, that they are not questioning this silliness.
Oh well, when life gives you BS, plant flowers...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
To those who own a home, I salute you!
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080722/home_prices_government_index.html
Here is a link to a report on the recent price declines for the month of May. Home prices fell about 5% from last year. So all my friends with million dollar homes just lost their kids' yearly tuition. Not to fret, if you sell now, you will avoid the bigger price drop to come.
Why? house foreclosures have not caught up with the layoffs. Congress is working on the crappy loans; we will soon see the loans that were made in good faith with good numbers soon go bad, due to increasing costs, increasing layoffs, and stagnant wages.
And once the baby boomers decide that they do not need-or cannnot afford- a five bedroom house with granite countertops, a wine cellar, and an outdoor kitchen, the value of YOUR house WILL be affected. A bright spot could be the fact that the boomers' adult children may not be able to afford their own houses, so they will move back in with their kids to mom and dad's.
Here is a link to a report on the recent price declines for the month of May. Home prices fell about 5% from last year. So all my friends with million dollar homes just lost their kids' yearly tuition. Not to fret, if you sell now, you will avoid the bigger price drop to come.
Why? house foreclosures have not caught up with the layoffs. Congress is working on the crappy loans; we will soon see the loans that were made in good faith with good numbers soon go bad, due to increasing costs, increasing layoffs, and stagnant wages.
And once the baby boomers decide that they do not need-or cannnot afford- a five bedroom house with granite countertops, a wine cellar, and an outdoor kitchen, the value of YOUR house WILL be affected. A bright spot could be the fact that the boomers' adult children may not be able to afford their own houses, so they will move back in with their kids to mom and dad's.
The Hits Just Keep On Coming
I am back. New Jersey is beautiful this time of year; my crappy hotel room overlooked the "atrium", where the management did not seem to understand that guests may not appreciate the "Noriega" suites, with music playing 24 hous a day outside your balcony. At least I have a job.
Too bad that about 4000 Wachovia employees will not be able to eat at the free breakfast bar. And Grandma's dividend check will be a little lighter. I hear the six-hundred calorie/day diet has been shown to extend life; good thing now that Grammy will be eating a lot less.
Correct me if I am wrong, but were not the write downs suppose to end two quarters ago? Can we not stop the madness? They put down dogs; is it not time to put down these banks? Look, how much capital does Wachovia need to raise to get even? And where are they going to get it from?
Citibank? I went into a Citibank on Saturday and the ratio was 4:1; four EMPLOYEES to one CUSTOMER. I went to my local B of A, where they cater to Hispanic customers, and at 8:45 in the morning it looked like a Tijuana whorehouse on Cinco De Mayo.
Dead cats do bounce...
Too bad that about 4000 Wachovia employees will not be able to eat at the free breakfast bar. And Grandma's dividend check will be a little lighter. I hear the six-hundred calorie/day diet has been shown to extend life; good thing now that Grammy will be eating a lot less.
Correct me if I am wrong, but were not the write downs suppose to end two quarters ago? Can we not stop the madness? They put down dogs; is it not time to put down these banks? Look, how much capital does Wachovia need to raise to get even? And where are they going to get it from?
Citibank? I went into a Citibank on Saturday and the ratio was 4:1; four EMPLOYEES to one CUSTOMER. I went to my local B of A, where they cater to Hispanic customers, and at 8:45 in the morning it looked like a Tijuana whorehouse on Cinco De Mayo.
Dead cats do bounce...
Monday, July 14, 2008
Tick, tock...
In January, I wrote a letter to several of my friends entitled, "Big Trends of 2008", in which I postulated on a few economic trends. One was that the price of oil would go to $150/barrel, and that the Burl Ives trade-buying silver and gold -would be profitable. I promise to post the letter soon; real life requires me to be in NJ trying to figure out where to turn around, and why a sandwich in a hotel cost $28.
In the meantime, a few thoughts. Oil is at $145/ barrel, despite everything we in America try to do to get it lower; drill in the LaBrea tarpits, recycle used French Fry-excuse me Freedom Fry-oil in our diesel cars, and get our fat asses up and walk the 1/4 block to the Quickie Mart for a Twinkie. We have not had a major hurricane, blowup in Nigeria, or shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz to push prices forward, yet upward they go, or in the words of Buzz Lightyear, "To infinity and beyond..." My prediction; the price of gas will drop in mid to late August due to the "Walmart Effect". That is, back to school time is coming, and little Janie can't go back to school with last year's rags on. So what to do? Walmart "talks" to Exxon and BP and voila, cheaper gas for all!!!
If you can afford it, feed grandma fried chicken and buttered rolls; a fatal stroke or a massive heart attack will be better than what she will have to suffer if she has to go into the health care system in this country. Doctors are screwed, insurance companies are screwed, and pharmaceutical companies are screwed. No one is willing to cut costs seriously, so quality of care will pummet. In all seriousness, if you have a loved one who has to be admitted, you must stay with them 24/7 to make sure they get out alive. Who knew that the movie "The Hospital" with George C. Scott would be so prescient?
And finally, the silver and gold trades are on. Expect gold to go to $1065 and silver to $23. Learn to bake bread, plant vegetables, and get a goat for the milk. No matter what Robert Di Nero may think, you can't milk a cat...
In the meantime, a few thoughts. Oil is at $145/ barrel, despite everything we in America try to do to get it lower; drill in the LaBrea tarpits, recycle used French Fry-excuse me Freedom Fry-oil in our diesel cars, and get our fat asses up and walk the 1/4 block to the Quickie Mart for a Twinkie. We have not had a major hurricane, blowup in Nigeria, or shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz to push prices forward, yet upward they go, or in the words of Buzz Lightyear, "To infinity and beyond..." My prediction; the price of gas will drop in mid to late August due to the "Walmart Effect". That is, back to school time is coming, and little Janie can't go back to school with last year's rags on. So what to do? Walmart "talks" to Exxon and BP and voila, cheaper gas for all!!!
If you can afford it, feed grandma fried chicken and buttered rolls; a fatal stroke or a massive heart attack will be better than what she will have to suffer if she has to go into the health care system in this country. Doctors are screwed, insurance companies are screwed, and pharmaceutical companies are screwed. No one is willing to cut costs seriously, so quality of care will pummet. In all seriousness, if you have a loved one who has to be admitted, you must stay with them 24/7 to make sure they get out alive. Who knew that the movie "The Hospital" with George C. Scott would be so prescient?
And finally, the silver and gold trades are on. Expect gold to go to $1065 and silver to $23. Learn to bake bread, plant vegetables, and get a goat for the milk. No matter what Robert Di Nero may think, you can't milk a cat...
Did anyone go to the movies this weekend?
The reason I ask is because if you did, you could have alternatively bought a share of GM. How in the world does a company like GM get to a market cap of 6 billion dollars? To put that into perspective, at least four people who have worked for Microsoft could buy GM. Oprah can buy 1/3 of GM. GM almost would do better if they stooped making cars for a month. I bet they wish they still had that $30 billion they gave to the union.
Oh yeah, I know how they got to a market cap of $6 billion. They hired Rick Wagonner. Check out his statement: "We have no plans to get rid of any other brands beside Hummer". WTF? I would not know a Saturn, a Volvo, or a Pontiac if it came and bit me on the butt, because NO ONE is buying them. Avis is renting Hyundais in addition to GMs. So Rickie, how do you propose to cut costs? Cut health benefits? Oh sorry, you don't have that tool in your kit anymore. Layoffs? Can't, due to that contract you just negotiated. How about cutting YOUR salary, to zero...douchebag. Sorry about the douchebag comment; at least douchebags serve a purpose...
Oh yeah, I know how they got to a market cap of $6 billion. They hired Rick Wagonner. Check out his statement: "We have no plans to get rid of any other brands beside Hummer". WTF? I would not know a Saturn, a Volvo, or a Pontiac if it came and bit me on the butt, because NO ONE is buying them. Avis is renting Hyundais in addition to GMs. So Rickie, how do you propose to cut costs? Cut health benefits? Oh sorry, you don't have that tool in your kit anymore. Layoffs? Can't, due to that contract you just negotiated. How about cutting YOUR salary, to zero...douchebag. Sorry about the douchebag comment; at least douchebags serve a purpose...
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