Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Halloween comes early this year

I bet the big sellers for masks this year will be those of Hank Paulson, Dick Fuld, and Ben Bernanke. And people will decorate their houses with bonds of Fannie and Lehman.

Folks sit down if you are reading this: this fiasco will cost our government at least $1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS to correct. Do the math: $200 billion for Fannie and Freddie as a start; $85 billion for AIG as a start; $30+billion for Bear; at least $75 billion for Citibank in two to three weeks: and about $125 billion for the lesser known banks like bumfuck trust in Media, Pa. And that is for starters.

But do not despair, there is some hedge fund guy out there getting his knob polished because he made a tremendous contraian bet. I think it was Paul Tudor Jones who made about $2 billion dollars in one year betting against subprime. There is a guy out there who had a huge bet against Fannie and Freddie months ago. I find it interesting that folks can not be both negative and positive about stocks, i.e. both go short and go long, depending on the situation. Did anyone think that oil could stay over $130-140? Goldman did, but when little old ladies who only drive on Sundays bitch about gas prices, they have gotten too high. When Google goes to $650, yet advertisers are pulling back ad dollars in tv, radio, and print, can it still go to $750? If Dell is selling computers on Ubid and Ebay, can their business really be that good( the drop in share price from $26 to $16 in the last three months says NO).

Remember my friends, be like David Carradine in Kung Fu: maintain balance depending on the circumstance. Or be like Marcellus Wallace and go medieval on a mofo when you get f''ed in the butt by the market. Just don't let your candy get taken and your house egged...

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